Steelers' D Might Be Too Much for One-Dimensional Cardinals' O

Ron Jaworski was an NFL quarterback for 15 seasons, and even made a Super Bowl appearance. He took his last snap in 1989, and is now better known for his ability to break down game film on ESPN's NFL Matchup show.

Greg Cosell of NFL Films, who works closely with Jaws, also has an amazing knack for Xs and Os (watching 80 hours of coaches tape six months a year probably helps). And in his Super Bowl column for Sporting News, he writes that while the Cardinals have had an amazing run, their high-powered offense will have trouble with the Steelers' top-ranked defense.

I know, hardly revolutionary. But unlike most preview columns, Cosell relies on more than hunches and gut feelings. He's spent the past 10 days in some dusty, cramped vault surrounded by stacks of film reels and a rickety old projector. The results: Steelers 27, Cardinals 20. (Random note: the over-under is 47. Just throwing that out there.)

So why does Cosell give Pittsburgh the edge? Simply put: Arizona's offense is one-dimensional. They're very, very good at that one dimension, but Cosell isn't convinced it'll be enough on Sunday. (The Panthers and Eagles -- two pretty good run defenses -- beg to differ.)

NFL games are about personnel packages and matchups, and the Cardinals do not have enough offensive dimensions to break down the Steelers' defense consistently. The Cardinals are, at their core, a passing team. It's a dynamic dimension, but it is still a singular component.

Which means that Arizona will rely on its strengths -- Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin -- to consistently matriculate the ball down the field. But if Pittsburgh isn't worried about stopping the run, that's to their advantage. Cosell explains:

There's no question the Steelers will game plan to stop the Cardinals' running game with seven defenders. So the Cardinals' base package will limit what they can do in the passing game. It will allow them to have an extra body to block Harrison and perhaps Woodley, but they will not get the individual matchups they need on the perimeter.

If the Cardinals throw out of two-receiver set, the Steelers will play a high percentage of two-deep schemes. That aligns a safety over the top of Fitzgerald and allows cornerbacks Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden to play in press position and prevent Fitzgerald from getting a free release off the snap.

Alternatively, Cosell writes, the Cards could choose to put Fitzgerald in motion prior to the snap to make it tougher on the Steelers' secondary to jam him at the line of scrimmage. I've heard a few talking heads mention exactly that during the NFL Network's 55 hours of coverage this week. (Fifty-five? Is it really necessary to hear from Snoop Dogg?)

And while it's a swell idea, here's the thing: according to Cosell, "Fitzgerald has been targeted 34 times (with 23 catches) in the three playoff wins, and only four times did the Cardinals move him before the snap, all against Carolina. That must happen with frequency in Super Bowl 43. Fitzgerald cannot be a stationary player."

Ultimately, though, unless the Cardinals' magically find a running game against the league's best run defense, they're postseason luck could run out on Sunday.